Will Pakistan and the IMF reach a staff-level agreement on the next review before 30 September 2026?

Pakistan is expecting an IMF mission in September 2026 to review its Extended Fund Facility and climate-resilience programmes, with roughly $1.2 billion riding on the outcome. A review normally ends with a staff-level agreement, which is the negotiating milestone that comes weeks or months before the IMF Executive Board actually releases money. Missions have slipped before, and the talks themselves can run past their expected close. Resolves: 30 September 2026 • Source: IMF press release or end-of-mission statement (imf.org) Rule: Resolves YES if the IMF publishes a press release or end-of-mission statement dated between 22 August and 30 September 2026 inclusive stating that the IMF staff and the Pakistani authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on a review of any Pakistan programme. The announcement of a mission, a mission arriving or beginning talks, statements by Pakistani ministers that a deal is close or done without an IMF publication, and separate Executive Board approval of an earlier review all resolve NO. Board approval within the window counts as YES only if the underlying staff-level agreement is also announced within the window.